The Red Sea Scrolls
Semi-operational St. Louis Cardinals weblog.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
The Next Hector Luna?
I’m sure everyone enjoys their post-Thanksgiving, tryptophan-induced comas differently. If you’re like me – and who isn’t – you spent at least a little time wondering how the hell we’re going to get two starting pitchers, a second lefty for the pen, a middle infield, and a fourth outfielder while keeping the payroll around $87 million.Enter the Rule 5 (or Rule V, if you’re feeling Roman) Draft, MLB’s attempt to prevent Lockean spoilage. To prevent the Yankees from fielding the Devil Rays as their AAA affiliate, players with a certain amount of service time – 4 years if signed at 18 or younger, 3 years if signed after 18 – must either be moved to the 40-man roster by late November or be exposed to the roving eyes of other teams. For $50,000, a franchise can pilfer any unprotected player.
Two things keep the Rule 5 from degenerating into a mad scramble for B-grade prospects. First, any team selecting a player through the Rule 5 must keep that player on the major-league roster for the full year. If the team wants to send their new prize to the minors, they must first offer the guy back to his old team for $25,000. (I think the demotion process also involves other teams, waivers, and the theory of relativity, but I’ll leave that for the front office to figure out.) So, unless you can find someone to contribute meaningfully in a reserve role, you burn a roster spot on a project that can’t contribute at a major league level and stunt his development to boot.
Secondly, while any player selected earns only the major league minimum for their year of pine-riding, they continue to receive the major league minimum even if they’re demoted to the minors for a year of seasoning. For example, even though Hector Luna will be spending 2005 (please God) in the minors, he still banks a tidy $300,000, meaning that in two years’ time, the Redbirds will have shelled out over half a million for a welcome-to-the-big-leagues homer and the rights to a possibly-decent middle-infielder in 2006.
Can the Cardinals gain from this year’s Rule 5? Possibly. According to MLB, they currently have only 32 players on their roster, and while some free agents will hopefully fill up these slots, it looks like the Cards have the roster flexibility to add someone if they want. On the flip side, the worst team picks first, and the team with the most regular-season wins – that would be us – picks last. Some teams don’t have any roster space, and others might opt to pick no one, but the cream of the crop will be gone by the time the Cards are up.
The Cardinals are in a win-now mode; at a minimum, they’re not in a position to waste a roster slot on a raw but overmatched 21-year-old who’s never seen anything more than high-A ball. However, a bullpen arm or a reasonably qualified bench player could help the Cards out and ease the payroll equation for free agent signings. You can find extensive lists of available players here and here, but below are a few players that the Cards might be able to use.
(NOTE: I’ve never seen any of these guys play, and the info below was cobbled together from various web sources. If you know something about any one of them that I don’t – Player X lost his non-pitching arm in a freak cooking accident or something – let me know.)
Position Players
Jake Gautreau, 2B/3B, 25, San Diego
Gautreau is a former first-rounder who was doing pretty well in A ball until being diagnosed with colitis in 2003. His 2004 was better: he only hit .266 splitting time between AA and AAA, but he posted a .344 OBP and jacked 19 homers. Could be a useful middle-infield reserve with some pop.
Mark Kiger, 2B/SS, 24, Oakland
Another possible IF reserve. Kiger had a decent year in AA last year - .262/.367/.355 – and while he has virtually no power, has a career minor-league OBP of .366.
Marshall McDougall, IF, 25, Texas
According to my not-so-exhaustive research, this guy isn’t a defensive standout but has experience at all four infield positions. Oh, and he hit .282/.349/.508 in AAA last year, followed by a .291/.379/.520 line in the Mexican Winter League.
Brian Stavisky, 24, OF, Oakland
Reportedly, this guy is competent enough in the field to handle all three outfield positions in a backup role. And while he was old for A ball, he absolutely destroyed it this year, to the tune of .343/.413/.550 – a tidy .963 OPS. But as long as we’re paying Roger Cedeno $1 million to be our fifth outfielder, I don’t know if we’d have room for Stavisky.
Pitchers
Colt Griffin, RHP, 22, Kansas City
Nuclear arm, no control. Griffin gets his fastball in the mid- to upper-90s but doesn’t know where it’s going, evidenced by near identical career K/9 and BB/9 rates. Part me of thinks “Dunc’s ultimate reclamation project,” and part of me thinks “Kyle Farnsworth, circa 2000.”
Luke Hagerty, LHP, 24, Chicago Cubs
This is a guy who torched A-ball in 2002 to the tune of a 1.12 ERA (0.98 WHIP) and 50K/15BB in 48 IP. Injuries are the issue here, as he’s getting over Tommy John surgery. Unless I’m mistaken, I think that means we could just stash him on the DL for awhile. (Anybody know if he could then rehab in the minors?) I doubt he falls far enough for the Cards to take him, but if he does we could do worse. (Chadd Blasko is another recovering Cubbie with promise.)
Blake McGinley, LHP, 26, New York Mets
Another candidate to be taken well before the Birdnals are up. A lefty reliever who struck out 112 in 91.1 IP in AA and AAA last year. Great career K rate too – 10.39/9 IP. It’d be nice to get him to replace…
Tyler Johnson, LHP, 23, St. Louis
Yes, you can claim your own players – the Braves chose their own Ben Rivera in 1988. In the unlikely event that Johnson is still on the board when the Cards can select, they’d be wise to take him. There are multiple rounds of the Rule 5, and someone will claim him if we don’t, since there’s not a system out there that can’t use a lefty reliever with a career K/9 rate of 10.37. He walks too many batters – 37 in 56.1 IP last year – but he’s young enough to straighten that out, and last I checked, we didn’t have left-handed power arms coming out of our ears. Why Walt thought it necessary to protect Mike Mahoney and Scott Seabol but not Johnson is beyond me.
Andy Sisco, LHP, 22, Chicago Cubs
Minor miracle if he lasts until the Cardinals select. Former uber-prospect whose fastball dropped to the high 80s last year. All the same, a 4.21 ERA and 134K/65BB in 126 IP was his worst season by far, and he’s only 22. The scary thought is this – Sisco’s only available because the Cubs have so many other prospects.
Royce Ring, LHP, 24 New York Mets
Rotoworld says he’s “lost velocity,” but I can’t find anything that states to what number he fell. Splitting time between AA and AAA last year, he kept his ERA in the mid- to upper-3s and struck out 45 guys in 63.1 IP, walking 23. He wasn’t terribly sharp in the Arizona Fall League, posting an ERA over 5 while only striking out 10 in 15.1 IP. Doesn’t look as appealing as some of the other candidates out there, but might work as the second lefty out of the pen.
Shawn Kohn, RHP, 25, Oakland
Great K/BB ratio, as he struck out 106 while only walking 11 in 85.2 innings between A and AAA last year. But he also gave up 7 jacks in his 42.2 inning stint in AAA.
Brad Knox, RHP, 22, Oakland
Probably too young, but 174K/24 BB in 156.1 IP makes you think. I know it’s generally a really bad idea to move someone from A ball to the bigs, but does anyone know if it’s marginally less bad if you’re just putting a flamethrower into a bullpen role?
Buddy Hernandez, 26, RHP, Atlanta
Here’s one with an off-chance of being available to us. Hernandez was fantastic in the low minors but leveled off in AAA over the past two years. Until last year he struck out over 10 per 9 IP, and last year’s 60K in 67 IP wasn’t too shabby either.
Help from Within?
In deciding whether the Cardinals should pick up a player in the Rule 5, one closing consideration is the current state of our own farm system. Random Redbird Reasoning points out that the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of positional prospects. We need middle infield help and some lefty power from the bench, but:
John Nelson (SS, .301/.396/.524 as a 25-year-old in AA) was left unprotected, and hit an anemic .172/.289/.344 in the AFL, committing 5 errors in 20 games for good measure.
The aforementioned Scott Seabol probably isn’t a middle infielder.
Bo Hart was decent last year in AAA - .299/.351/.440 - but I'm betting I'm not alone in not wanting to count on him to play a big role in 2005.
John Gall might be the lefty bat we need – but without a major-league at-bat to his name, and his reported utter inability to play defense, he’s a roll of the dice at best.
Reid Gorecki (just-turned-24 OF) had a nice campaign in high-A ball this year (.320/.370/.440) and absolutely tore up the AFL (.363/.449/.569 in 102 AB). But he’s a right-handed batter and could probably stand to see a pitch or two in AA before taking on the Priors, Oswalts, and Sheets…s of the world.
Long story short, the farm doesn’t have anyone decidedly better than some of the options available in the Rule 5. As for bullpen arms, Random also notes that we’re better off here, but given Carpenter’s shoulder, Ankiel’s mindframe, and the possibility of moving half our stockpile for a mulleted savior, the flexibility of another option wouldn’t hurt.
I won’t rank these players, as I don’t really know how I’d compare them other than by the numbers I’ve already listed. But to some degree I think almost all of the above could potentially be of use, and given the relatively low-risk involved, might be worthy of a pick.
Posted by Ryan @ 6:02 PM
5 comments
5 Comments:
More on Stravisky: other sources say the guy's a defensive liability and likely to move to 1B. This, obviously, would make him of little use to the Cards. My bad.
Do you think it's weird that Nelson was left off the 40-man by the Cards? We have a dearth of middle infield prospects. Maybe they're just gambling that no one will take him--and are trying to save the dough by not starting his major league clock. You'd think with Kline leaving they might want to give Johnson a shot at lefty # 2--especially if Cali can't cut it.
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